Teal Group sUAS forecastAs shown in the graph, it is expected that, once the final small UAS rule is implemented, two different categories of small UAS (sUAS) will emerge. Higher end sUAS will have an average sales price of $40,000 per unit, while lower-end units will have an average price of $2,500. Over a
five-year period, Teal Group forecasts the sUAS fleet to be approximately 542,500.

Of this estimated fleet, it is expected that roughly 90% of the demand will satisfied by the lower end units.

The number of small UAS forecasted is highly uncertain and is dependent on the regulatory structure ultimately adopted. Once a final rule for small UAS is published, they will become more commercially viable than they are today. The total fleet shown in the previous table is expected to satisfy the market for the top five industries that will employ the use of sUAS.

  • 2% government
  • 22% real estate and aerial photography
  • 15% insurance
  • 19% agriculture
  • 42% industrial inspection

Unmanned aircraft systems will be the most dynamic growth sector within aviation.

This is a somewhat self-congratulatory report at least when it comes to drones. Happy to see that this time their commercial forecast has some foundation and the source is transparent. I am sure there will be a lot of debate about the “top five industries.”

FAA Forecast to 2020

Elsewhere they provided this table which suggests that there will be some 7 million drones aloft in 2020. Once again there is no source for the forecast – it is Christmas fearmongering redux.

Download the report here

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